The Global Review - Farid Novin

YALTA II: THE TRUMP–PUTIN–XI SUMMIT AND THE RECONFIGURATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER

A Bayesian Game-Theoretic Scenario Analysis of Great-Power Bargaining, Strategic Accommodation, Nuclear Stability, European Security, Taiwan, the Middle East and Global Economic Consequences

Farid Novin

Executive Assessment

The proposed November 19, 2026, meeting in Shenzhen between U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping represents an important moment in the evolution of contemporary international relations. Its significance, however, should not be measured solely by whether the three leaders produce a formal agreement. The more consequential question is whether their interaction establishes new expectations about the permissible conduct of great powers, the management of regional conflicts, the distribution of strategic influence and the limits of existing international commitments.

The meeting, increasingly described in political commentary as Yalta II, evokes the February 1945 Yalta Conference, when the United States, the Soviet Union and Britain negotiated elements of the postwar European settlement. The historical analogy is politically evocative but institutionally imperfect. The proposed Shenzhen meeting involves three nuclear powers with substantially different economic structures, strategic objectives, military capabilities and domestic political constraints. More importantly, neither Ukraine nor Taiwan, nor the European and Asian allies whose security could be affected by any accommodation, will possess an equivalent negotiating position at the trilateral table.

As of November 14, the meeting has been confirmed for November 19 on the margins of the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, scheduled for November 18–19. Nevertheless, reporting indicates that the three governments have not agreed upon a comprehensive agenda or negotiating format. Washington appears interested in nuclear arms control and the possibility of reducing the costs of its conflict with Iran. Moscow would prefer an opportunity to advance its objectives in Ukraine and obtain recognition of its great-power status. Beijing, meanwhile, has demonstrated considerable reluctance to assume responsibility for negotiating either the Ukrainian settlement or a trilateral nuclear agreement that would impose constraints disproportionate to China's present nuclear arsenal.

The central analytical proposition of this paper is that the most probable outcome is not a comprehensive territorial settlement or a formal division of the world into three spheres of influence. Rather, it is an asymmetric strategic accommodation, characterized by diplomatic recognition, selective crisis management, limited understandings and deliberate ambiguity concerning unresolved conflicts.

Such an outcome could nevertheless have profound consequences. An informal understanding among Washington, Moscow and Beijing could alter the calculations of European governments, weaken confidence in American extended deterrence, encourage strategic hedging in Northeast Asia, complicate Taiwan's security environment and accelerate the fragmentation of international economic and political governance.

The central distinction is between an agreement that formally redistributes sovereignty and one that informally redistributes the risks and responsibilities of maintaining international order. The latter may be considerably more achievable and, over time, equally consequential.

This assessment employs Bayesian reasoning to examine how each leader interprets the private intentions and constraints of the other participants, how observable diplomatic and military signals modify those beliefs, and how the resulting strategic calculations generate alternative equilibrium outcomes. The probabilities assigned to the scenarios are analytical judgments rather than statistically estimated frequencies. They should therefore be understood as conditional assessments subject to revision as new evidence emerges.

I. The Strategic Context: Why Shenzhen Matters

The international environment entering the Shenzhen meeting is characterized by simultaneous geopolitical and economic disequilibrium.

The United States is managing a costly military confrontation with Iran, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, increased pressure on defence inventories and a domestic political environment made more difficult by the Republican Party's recent midterm electoral losses. Russia remains engaged in a prolonged war in Ukraine, with significant military, fiscal and technological costs. China, notwithstanding its growing economic and military influence, faces the challenge of maintaining international commercial stability while avoiding an unnecessary confrontation with Washington.

These pressures create a temporary convergence of interests without necessarily producing a convergence of strategic objectives.

Trump seeks an outcome that can demonstrate presidential authority and diplomatic effectiveness while reducing the domestic and international costs of prolonged military commitments. Putin seeks to transform military endurance into political recognition and a settlement that preserves Russian strategic gains. Xi seeks to demonstrate China's capacity to convene the major powers without allowing Beijing to become responsible for resolving conflicts whose origins and consequences are not under its exclusive control.

This distinction is fundamental.

The three leaders may have an interest in reducing international instability, but they do not necessarily agree on the distribution of the benefits and costs associated with doing so.

Reuters reporting on November 14 indicates that Beijing has been reluctant to place Ukraine formally on the trilateral agenda and that American officials do not expect a nuclear arms agreement from the meeting. The Associated Press similarly describes the gathering as more likely to be symbolic than substantive.

Consequently, the significance of Shenzhen may lie less in the negotiation of a comprehensive settlement than in the establishment of a new diplomatic channel through which the three powers can communicate their respective limits, expectations and bargaining positions.

The historical reference to Yalta should therefore be treated as a hypothesis to be examined rather than a predetermined description of the summit's outcome.

II. The Bayesian Strategic Environment: Three Leaders, Three Sets of Private Information

A Bayesian game-theoretic interpretation begins with an important observation: each participant possesses private information about his actual willingness to compromise, domestic political vulnerability, military capacity, economic tolerance and preferred strategic outcome.

Although the leaders can observe public statements, military deployments, economic indicators and diplomatic initiatives, they cannot directly observe the intentions of their counterparts.

Each must therefore infer the others' private strategic types from incomplete information.

A. Donald Trump: The Transactional President and the Domestic Constraint

Trump enters Shenzhen with a dual strategic incentive.

On the international level, he wishes to demonstrate that direct presidential diplomacy can achieve outcomes unavailable through conventional multilateral negotiations. His approach places considerable emphasis on personal relationships, visible diplomatic achievements, bargaining leverage and the possibility of exchanging concessions across otherwise unrelated policy areas.

On the domestic level, however, his freedom of action is constrained by the political and economic consequences of the Iran conflict.

Reuters reported on November 14 that Trump has considered refraining from further attacks against Iran unless new provocations occur. The same reporting describes an administration that has not settled upon a definitive strategy for ending the conflict. The military option remains available, but the economic, political and operational costs of continuing the confrontation have become increasingly significant.

The election results further complicate the presidential calculation. A Democratic-controlled Congress beginning in 2027 would increase the institutional and political costs of sustaining an open-ended military commitment.

Two strategic types should therefore be considered.

The first is the Transactional Dealmaker. This type prioritizes an internationally visible diplomatic achievement, a reduction in military expenditure, a more manageable relationship with China and an opportunity to claim that the administration has restored strategic stability.

The second is the Coercive Negotiator. This type uses the summit to extract concessions through pressure, maintaining military and economic instruments while avoiding commitments that could restrict future American freedom of action.

The distinction matters because a transactional president may accept reciprocal restraint, whereas a coercive negotiator may interpret compromise as a temporary tactical instrument.

Trump's most important private constraint is therefore not simply military capacity. It is the political sustainability of his foreign-policy commitments.

B. Vladimir Putin: Strategic Endurance or Negotiated Consolidation?

Putin's principal objective is to convert Russia's prolonged military engagement in Ukraine into a sustainable political and strategic settlement.

Moscow has an incentive to obtain recognition of its negotiating position, reduce economic isolation and secure an arrangement that prevents the indefinite continuation of a costly war.

However, the Kremlin must also consider the domestic political implications of any settlement that appears to sacrifice previously declared objectives.

Two private strategic types are relevant.

The first is the Exhausted Consolidator. This type recognizes that the marginal costs of continued warfare are increasing and that a negotiated cessation of hostilities could preserve existing military advantages while reducing the burden on the Russian economy.

The second is the Maximalist Revisionist. This type believes that continued military pressure and Western political divisions may produce more favourable conditions than an immediate settlement.

The distinction is important because Putin could participate in Shenzhen without intending to make substantial concessions.

The symbolic value of being received alongside the American and Chinese presidents is itself a strategic benefit. It reinforces the Russian leadership's claim that Moscow remains an indispensable participant in determining the future of international security.

However, recognition of Russia as a great power is not equivalent to international recognition of territorial acquisitions. Nor does a meeting with Trump and Xi automatically produce sanctions relief, access to European financial markets or the acceptance of Russian security demands by Ukraine.

Putin must therefore evaluate whether the diplomatic benefits of the meeting exceed the concessions necessary to secure an enforceable agreement.

C. Xi Jinping: The Strategic Arbiter or the Reluctant Stabilizer?

Xi's position is structurally different.

China possesses substantial economic leverage, growing military capabilities and extensive commercial relationships with both Russia and the United States. Nevertheless, it has strong incentives to avoid a confrontation that could destabilize international trade, technological supply chains and the wider investment environment.

Beijing also has an important diplomatic interest in presenting China as a responsible international power capable of facilitating dialogue.

However, Xi faces a strategic dilemma.

A successful trilateral summit could enhance China's international standing. Yet an agreement that obliges China to share responsibility for enforcing nuclear restraint, resolving the Ukrainian conflict or managing the consequences of the Iran war could impose considerable costs.

Two possible Chinese strategic types should be distinguished.

The first is the Pragmatic System Stabilizer, which seeks to reduce geopolitical uncertainty, protect commercial interests and establish communication mechanisms among the major powers.

The second is the Strategic Hedger, which prefers to preserve diplomatic flexibility while allowing the United States and Russia to absorb the costs of their respective regional conflicts.

Xi's nuclear position is especially important. Reuters estimates that China possesses approximately 500 nuclear warheads, compared with more than 5,000 in the American and Russian arsenals respectively. Although China's arsenal is expanding, Beijing has little incentive to accept a negotiating framework that treats the three nuclear powers as though they possess equivalent capabilities and strategic responsibilities.

Xi may therefore welcome discussion of nuclear risk reduction while resisting numerical arms-control commitments.

His preferred outcome is likely to be an agreement that enhances China's diplomatic stature without restricting its future strategic options.

III. Strategic Signalling, Information Asymmetry and the Credibility Problem

The central difficulty facing the three leaders is that public diplomatic declarations do not necessarily reveal private intentions.

A commitment to peace may represent a genuine change in strategic preferences, an attempt to reduce military costs or an effort to create favourable conditions for future coercion.

The distinction between signalling and commitment is therefore essential.

For example, a Russian declaration of readiness to discuss a ceasefire does not establish that Moscow is prepared to accept an arrangement that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and provides credible security guarantees.

Similarly, American expressions of interest in nuclear negotiations do not establish a willingness to accept restrictions on missile defence, strategic modernization or the deployment of conventional forces.

Chinese support for international stability does not necessarily imply acceptance of American proposals concerning Taiwan or restrictions on China's nuclear modernization.

The three leaders must consequently assess not merely what their counterparts say, but what they are willing to implement when the immediate diplomatic benefits of cooperation have disappeared.

This creates a classic credibility problem.

An agreement without verification, monitoring, defined obligations and consequences for non-compliance may produce temporary diplomatic optimism while leaving the underlying strategic competition unchanged.

The most important outcome of Shenzhen may therefore be whether the leaders establish procedures for continued communication rather than announce ambitious but unenforceable commitments.

A limited agreement supported by credible communication mechanisms may be more strategically valuable than a grand declaration unsupported by implementation arrangements.

IV. The Three Principal Bayesian Scenario Equilibria

The following scenarios represent alternative possible outcomes of the November 19 meeting. Their probability assessments reflect information available on November 14 and should not be confused with confirmed summit results.

Scenario One: Asymmetric Strategic Accommodation

Central assessment: Most probable outcome — approximately 60%.

The most probable scenario involves a limited diplomatic understanding that permits each leader to claim progress without requiring substantial concessions on the most difficult geopolitical questions.

Trump obtains an opportunity to demonstrate international leadership and to explore mechanisms for reducing the costs of the Iran conflict.

Putin receives diplomatic recognition and an opportunity to communicate Russian objectives directly to the American president, without necessarily securing a comprehensive Ukrainian settlement.

Xi reinforces China's international standing by hosting the first such trilateral encounter while avoiding commitments that could constrain Chinese military modernization or require Beijing to assume responsibility for enforcing a settlement.

The meeting may produce a declaration supporting strategic stability, improved military communication, nuclear risk reduction and continued diplomatic engagement.

However, such language should not be confused with an arms-control treaty.

A meaningful nuclear agreement would require agreement on the weapons and delivery systems covered, verification arrangements, monitoring procedures, compliance obligations and the relationship between strategic nuclear forces and missile defence.

These issues cannot realistically be resolved through a single political encounter.

The Ukrainian question may remain outside the formal trilateral agenda. Nevertheless, the participants may discuss the broader strategic environment surrounding the conflict, including sanctions, European security, Russian-American relations and the conditions under which negotiations could continue.

Iran may receive more attention because the conflict directly affects American military resources, energy security and the economic interests of China and other Asian importers.

The resulting equilibrium is asymmetric because each leader obtains a different benefit from the same diplomatic process.

Trump obtains visibility and potential strategic relief. Putin obtains recognition and continued access to high-level diplomacy. Xi obtains diplomatic prestige and preserves strategic flexibility.

This outcome would not constitute a new Yalta settlement in the historical sense. It would, however, establish a more transactional pattern of great-power diplomacy.

Scenario Two: A Limited Great-Power Accommodation on Regional Conflicts

Conditional assessment: Approximately 25%.

This scenario requires a more significant convergence of private preferences.

Trump would have to conclude that reducing the costs of the Iran conflict and stabilizing relations with Russia and China outweigh the political risks of appearing to retreat.

Putin would have to accept that the costs of continued warfare in Ukraine exceed the potential benefits of further military pressure.

Xi would have to conclude that regional instability represents a sufficiently serious threat to China's commercial and strategic interests to justify greater diplomatic involvement.

Under these conditions, Shenzhen could initiate a broader process of reciprocal restraint.

The United States might explore a diplomatic framework for reducing hostilities with Iran, including maritime security arrangements and renewed negotiations over nuclear issues.

Russia might agree to further negotiations on a Ukrainian ceasefire, although a comprehensive settlement would remain dependent upon Ukraine's participation.

China could facilitate communications and offer economic incentives for stabilization without formally guaranteeing the territorial or political terms of an agreement.

The principal obstacle is that the three leaders cannot independently determine the political choices of the governments and societies affected by these conflicts.

Ukraine cannot be compelled to accept territorial arrangements simply because Washington and Moscow find them convenient.

Iran cannot be treated as a passive instrument of Chinese or Russian policy.

Likewise, Beijing cannot guarantee that every regional actor will accept a negotiated arrangement.

Consequently, this scenario would be more accurately described as a process of conflict containment than a division of the world into exclusive spheres of influence.

Its success would depend upon the participation of the affected states and the creation of enforceable security arrangements.

Scenario Three: Strategic Breakdown and Renewed Competitive Escalation

Conditional assessment: Approximately 15%.

The third scenario emerges if the participants discover that their respective strategic objectives are incompatible.

Trump may demand that China reduce its economic and technological cooperation with Russia or exercise greater pressure on Iran.

Xi may reject demands that compromise Chinese strategic autonomy or require Beijing to accept disproportionate nuclear restrictions.

Putin may refuse to consider a Ukrainian settlement that does not recognize Russian territorial and security demands.

Under these conditions, the meeting could become an exercise in diplomatic positioning rather than negotiation.

The leaders might issue general statements supporting stability while avoiding substantive commitments.

Alternatively, the meeting could end without a meaningful joint declaration.

The strategic consequences would be significant.

Russia would have an incentive to deepen its relationship with China and continue seeking opportunities to exploit divisions among Western governments.

China would have little reason to modify its strategic relationship with Moscow.

Washington might respond through intensified economic pressure, technological restrictions and military cooperation with its allies.

The danger is not necessarily an immediate confrontation among the three nuclear powers. It is the possibility that unresolved disagreements generate increasingly dangerous regional competition.

A failed summit could therefore increase uncertainty rather than produce a return to the previous strategic equilibrium.

V. Why a New Yalta Is Unlikely, but Why the Analogy Matters

The 1945 Yalta Conference took place in the aftermath of a devastating world war, when the military position of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe and the overwhelming strategic importance of the United States and Britain made a negotiated postwar settlement possible.

The international environment of 2026 is fundamentally different.

The contemporary international system is economically interconnected, technologically dependent and institutionally more complex. Political authority is distributed among states, regional organizations, international institutions, multinational corporations and transnational financial networks.

The United States, Russia and China cannot simply determine the future of Ukraine, Taiwan, Europe or the Middle East through a private understanding.

Nevertheless, the Yalta analogy remains important because it identifies a recurring danger in international politics: powerful states may attempt to resolve their own strategic difficulties by transferring uncertainty and security costs to smaller states.

The relevant question is not whether the three presidents can formally divide the world. It is whether they can establish informal expectations that limit the freedom of action of other countries.

An understanding that tacitly tolerates Russian territorial control in Ukraine, reduces American resistance to Chinese coercion around Taiwan or establishes informal restrictions on the strategic independence of smaller states would create a serious institutional problem.

Such an arrangement could weaken the principle that national sovereignty cannot legitimately be exchanged without the participation of the state concerned.

The danger of a new Yalta therefore lies less in an explicit territorial partition than in the gradual normalization of great-power bargaining over the security interests of others.

VI. European Security: The Strategic Consequences of Great-Power Accommodation

Perhaps the most immediate institutional consequence of a Trump–Putin–Xi understanding would be the reassessment of European security.

European governments have a fundamental interest in preventing a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict that compromises their own security without their participation.

For Europe, the issue extends beyond the future of Ukraine. It concerns the credibility of NATO, the reliability of American extended deterrence and the capacity of European institutions to protect their members against external coercion.

A diplomatic arrangement between Washington and Moscow that effectively freezes the Ukrainian conflict without Ukrainian consent would create a serious dilemma for European governments.

If Washington were to reduce its support for Kyiv in exchange for Russian concessions elsewhere, European governments would have to consider whether American security guarantees remain sufficiently reliable to underpin their long-term defence planning.

This would not necessarily produce an immediate collapse of NATO. The alliance possesses institutional commitments, military infrastructure and established command arrangements that cannot be dissolved by a single presidential meeting.

Nevertheless, uncertainty concerning American political commitment could weaken deterrence even without a formal withdrawal from the alliance.

A. The Emergence of European Strategic Autonomy

The most likely European response would be an acceleration of strategic autonomy within NATO rather than the immediate construction of an entirely independent European military alliance.

France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Nordic countries would have incentives to strengthen European defence-industrial coordination, increase ammunition production and expand independent intelligence and surveillance capabilities.

The central issue is the gap between financial commitments and actual military capacity.

Europe has already established the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which provides up to €150 billion in loans to support defence investment and common procurement. It forms part of the broader ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 framework.

However, financing alone cannot resolve shortages of skilled labour, production facilities, advanced electronics, propellants, critical materials and specialized engineering capacity.

The transition from procurement announcements to operational capability requires time.

European governments must therefore address three interconnected challenges.

First, they must expand the production of conventional weapons and ammunition, including air-defence interceptors, artillery systems, precision-guided munitions and unmanned platforms.

Second, they must reduce dependence on American strategic enablers, particularly satellite intelligence, secure communications, air-to-air refuelling, integrated command systems and long-range reconnaissance.

Third, they must establish a credible European nuclear consultation and deterrence framework.

B. The Franco-British Nuclear Dimension

France and the United Kingdom remain Europe's two nuclear-armed powers.

Their arsenals cannot simply substitute for the American nuclear umbrella, nor should their capabilities be treated as numerically equivalent to those of the United States or Russia.

Nevertheless, they provide an important foundation for a more independent European deterrence architecture.

France has an established doctrine linking nuclear deterrence to the protection of its vital national interests. The United Kingdom maintains its independent nuclear deterrent through its submarine-based system, while remaining institutionally and operationally integrated with NATO.

A deterioration in American strategic credibility could encourage closer Franco-British consultation concerning the European dimension of nuclear deterrence.

Germany, Poland and the Nordic states would have strong incentives to participate in these discussions.

The objective would not necessarily be the transfer of nuclear weapons or launch authority. It would be to clarify the political and strategic conditions under which European vital interests are protected.

Such a framework would require considerable political and doctrinal development.

It would also have to address the risk that ambiguity intended to strengthen deterrence could generate misunderstandings during a crisis.

C. European Defence Financing and Industrial Constraints

European rearmament faces a fundamental structural problem: financial authorization does not automatically produce industrial output.

SAFE provides an important financing mechanism, but the effectiveness of the programme depends upon whether participating states can translate common procurement into sustained production.

The European defence-industrial base remains fragmented by national procurement systems, incompatible specifications and competing industrial interests.

The expansion of defence production also competes with civilian investment, public expenditure and other fiscal priorities.

Consequently, a prolonged period of strategic uncertainty could create an increasingly difficult fiscal trade-off.

European governments would have to finance defence modernization while maintaining social expenditure, public infrastructure, energy transition programmes and debt sustainability.

The political sustainability of rearmament will therefore depend not only on the perceived Russian threat but also on its socioeconomic distribution.

If defence expenditure is financed through reduced public investment or deterioration in household living standards, political support may weaken.

The resulting problem is a strategic version of the guns-versus-growth dilemma.

Europe must increase its defence capacity without undermining the economic and democratic foundations that make its political system resilient.

VII. Ukraine: The Limits of Negotiating Without the Principal Participant

Ukraine is the most obvious test of whether Shenzhen could produce a new system of great-power accommodation.

Putin has an incentive to obtain a settlement that preserves Russian military gains and limits Ukraine's future strategic orientation.

Trump has an incentive to reduce the American financial and military burden.

Xi has an incentive to avoid prolonged instability that damages international trade and complicates China's relationship with European markets.

However, these interests do not establish that the three leaders can negotiate an acceptable settlement on behalf of Ukraine.

The recent resumption of American-mediated Russian-Ukrainian discussions in Abu Dhabi demonstrates that direct negotiations between the parties remain necessary. The Associated Press reported on November 13 that the discussions were constructive but did not produce a decisive breakthrough.

The distinction between a ceasefire and a durable peace agreement is particularly important.

A ceasefire can temporarily suspend military operations without resolving territorial disputes, security guarantees, sanctions, reconstruction or the future political orientation of Ukraine.

A durable settlement would require credible arrangements addressing these issues.

From a Bayesian perspective, the central problem is the credibility of future commitments.

Ukraine must consider whether Russia would respect a ceasefire when military conditions become more favourable to renewed operations.

Russia must consider whether Ukraine would accept a settlement that preserves Russian territorial control without obtaining sufficiently credible security guarantees.

European governments must consider whether they would be required to finance and enforce an agreement negotiated principally by Washington and Moscow.

The United States must consider whether it is willing to provide the long-term guarantees necessary to make a settlement sustainable.

These questions cannot be resolved by diplomatic symbolism.

Three Possible Ukrainian Outcomes

The first is an internationally monitored cessation of hostilities that leaves territorial questions unresolved. This could reduce immediate military casualties while preserving the possibility of future negotiations.

The second is a frozen conflict without adequate security guarantees. This might reduce the immediate costs of warfare but would create incentives for both sides to rearm and prepare for another confrontation.

The third is a broader political settlement involving Ukraine, Russia, the United States and European governments, with verifiable security commitments, reconstruction arrangements and a mutually negotiated framework for addressing territorial disputes.

The third outcome would be the most sustainable, but it would also be the most difficult to achieve.

A Shenzhen understanding that bypasses Kyiv would therefore risk creating a temporary diplomatic success at the expense of long-term European security.

VIII. Taiwan: The Most Sensitive Test of the Emerging Strategic Order

Taiwan presents a different but equally consequential challenge.

Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is situated within a regional security environment directly connected to the strategic competition between the United States and China.

For Beijing, reunification remains a central national objective. For Washington, the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is an important component of its Indo-Pacific security architecture.

The fundamental difficulty is that the two governments interpret the status quo differently.

China regards the prevention of permanent Taiwanese independence as a central national interest. Taiwan's political institutions and democratic population, meanwhile, have their own preferences concerning their political future.

A great-power accommodation that appears to treat Taiwan's security as negotiable could therefore generate substantial uncertainty throughout East Asia.

A. Military Pressure and the Normalization of Coercion

The military situation around Taiwan is particularly relevant to the Shenzhen meeting.

The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense reported that between November 13 and November 14 it detected ten sorties by Chinese military aircraft, eight People's Liberation Army Navy vessels and three official ships operating around Taiwan. Four aircraft crossed the median line and entered areas of Taiwan's air-defence identification zone.

The Institute for the Study of War's November 13 assessment also described continuing Chinese military activity consistent with an exercise designed to simulate the isolation of Taiwan from external intervention.

These developments demonstrate that the strategic environment is not static.

The principal concern is the normalization of military pressure below the threshold of conventional war.

Repeated aircraft and naval deployments, coast guard operations, maritime exercises and operational activity around the island can gradually change expectations concerning what constitutes normal military behaviour.

Over time, this may reduce warning periods and increase the risk of accidental escalation.

A summit declaration supporting stability would have limited value unless accompanied by practical commitments concerning military communication, crisis management and restraint.

B. The Strategic Limitations of the Silicon Shield

Taiwan's semiconductor industry creates a powerful international economic interest in maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait.

The concentration of advanced semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan means that a major military confrontation could disrupt global technology production, artificial intelligence investment, automobile manufacturing, telecommunications and financial markets.

However, the silicon shield should not be interpreted as an absolute guarantee against conflict.

Economic interdependence can increase the cost of military action without eliminating political or strategic incentives to undertake it.

Moreover, overseas semiconductor investment cannot immediately reproduce the full industrial ecosystem developed in Taiwan.

The island's technological advantages depend upon an integrated network of engineers, suppliers, research institutions, specialized infrastructure and production expertise.

A disruption of that ecosystem would have consequences extending far beyond the semiconductor industry.

C. The Strategic Hedging of Japan and South Korea

Japan would interpret any American accommodation with China concerning Taiwan as a major strategic signal.

Tokyo's response would likely involve greater defence expenditure, additional conventional deterrence capabilities, stronger cooperation with Australia and the Philippines, and closer coordination with European security partners.

Debate over Japan's long-term nuclear posture could intensify, although the transition from political discussion to an actual nuclear weapons programme would involve substantial legal, diplomatic, economic and domestic constraints.

South Korea would face a different set of calculations.

Its immediate security concern is North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities.

If Seoul concludes that Washington is increasingly willing to negotiate regional security questions without consulting its allies, it could seek greater diplomatic engagement with Beijing while simultaneously strengthening its independent defence capabilities.

The domestic debate concerning an indigenous South Korean nuclear deterrent could become more prominent.

Neither country would necessarily abandon its American alliance.

Rather, both could pursue a more diversified strategy in which reliance on Washington is supplemented by independent military capabilities and additional regional partnerships.

D. The Taiwan Equilibrium

The most probable near-term outcome is not a formal agreement recognizing a Chinese sphere of influence over Taiwan.

Such an agreement would face serious political, institutional and strategic obstacles in Washington and throughout the Indo-Pacific.

The more plausible danger is strategic ambiguity becoming progressively more favourable to Beijing.

If Chinese leaders infer that American willingness to intervene has weakened, they may increase pressure on Taiwan without immediately resorting to an invasion.

This could create a dangerous equilibrium in which China increases coercion, Taiwan strengthens its defences and the United States attempts to preserve deterrence without committing itself to an unrestricted military confrontation.

The result would be persistent strategic instability rather than a settled regional order.

IX. The Middle East: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the Economics of Strategic Withdrawal

The Iran conflict provides one of the most important connections between Trump's domestic political calculations and his interest in great-power diplomacy.

The war, which began in February 2026, has generated significant military, economic and diplomatic costs.

It has also complicated international energy security and increased uncertainty concerning the security of maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

For Washington, the principal question is no longer simply whether military operations can damage Iranian military capabilities.

It is whether the United States can translate military pressure into a politically sustainable strategic outcome.

Reuters reported on November 14 that Trump is considering refraining from additional attacks in the absence of further provocations, while maintaining the possibility of military escalation.

This indicates a possible shift from sustained offensive operations towards a combination of economic pressure, maritime containment and conditional diplomacy.

Such a policy would not constitute a negotiated peace.

It would represent an attempt to manage the conflict without assuming the costs of either an expanded war or a comprehensive political settlement.

A. Iran's Strategic Position

Iran's calculations cannot be reduced to the preferences of Moscow or Beijing.

Tehran has its own security concerns, political objectives, economic constraints and regional relationships.

Even if Russia and China favour a reduction in hostilities, neither can guarantee that Iran will accept an American settlement.

Iran would have to consider the consequences of any agreement for its sovereignty, nuclear programme, military capabilities, sanctions exposure and regional security relationships.

An arrangement that simply requires Tehran to accept American demands without reciprocal concessions would face serious credibility and implementation problems.

The possibility of renewed escalation would therefore remain significant.

B. China's Energy Security Calculations

China has a direct economic interest in the stability of the Persian Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz is a major international energy transit route, and prolonged disruption would increase transportation costs, insurance premiums, energy-price volatility and uncertainty across Asian manufacturing economies.

China therefore has an incentive to encourage de-escalation.

However, Beijing must also consider its strategic relationship with Iran and its broader interest in avoiding an American-dominated regional security arrangement.

The Chinese position is likely to favour diplomatic stabilization without assuming exclusive responsibility for Iran's conduct.

This gives Xi a potential diplomatic role but limits his ability to guarantee a settlement.

C. Russia's Position

Russia may benefit from higher energy prices and from the diversion of American military resources towards the Middle East.

Nevertheless, an uncontrolled escalation could also damage international energy markets, complicate Russian relations with regional governments and increase the risk of wider military confrontation.

Moscow's preferred outcome may therefore be a reduction in hostilities that preserves its regional relationships while preventing Washington from converting military pressure into a broader strategic victory.

D. The Bayesian Outcome for Iran

The most plausible outcome is a gradual movement towards conditional de-escalation rather than a comprehensive peace agreement.

This could involve renewed diplomatic contacts, informal maritime security understandings, limitations on further military attacks and attempts to reopen a negotiation concerning nuclear issues.

However, the parties would still face substantial disagreements over sanctions, nuclear verification, maritime restrictions and regional security.

The Iranian government must remain an independent participant in any settlement.

A trilateral understanding between Trump, Putin and Xi cannot substitute for negotiations with Tehran.

X. Nuclear Arms Control: The Limits of Trilateral Negotiation

Nuclear stability is potentially the most consequential subject of the Shenzhen meeting.

The expiration of the last remaining major American-Russian strategic arms-control treaty in February 2026 has increased uncertainty concerning the future of bilateral nuclear restraint.

Trump has expressed interest in a broader nuclear arrangement involving China.

However, the strategic conditions for such an agreement remain difficult.

The United States and Russia possess substantially larger nuclear arsenals than China. Beijing therefore has little incentive to accept restrictions based on a framework designed around the existing American-Russian balance.

A comprehensive trilateral treaty would have to address differences in arsenal size, force structure, strategic doctrine, missile defence, delivery systems and modernization programmes.

It would also require a verification regime acceptable to all three governments.

These issues are unlikely to be resolved during a single summit.

A more realistic first step would be a limited framework for nuclear risk reduction.

Such a framework could include:

• Reaffirmation of the importance of avoiding direct military confrontation among nuclear powers.

• Improved communication between national security authorities.

• Measures to reduce the risk of accidental or unauthorized escalation.

• Technical discussions concerning nuclear command-and-control security.

• Greater transparency concerning strategic exercises, where mutually acceptable.

• Continued diplomatic engagement on future arms-control arrangements.

The inclusion of artificial intelligence in these discussions is increasingly important.

AI-assisted military systems, automated warning processes and algorithmic decision support could affect the time available for human decision-makers during a crisis.

The principal concern is not that autonomous systems will independently initiate a nuclear war in the immediate future. It is that automated systems could amplify misinterpretation, accelerate escalation or create excessive confidence in incomplete intelligence.

Consequently, practical safeguards concerning human oversight, communication and crisis management could represent a more achievable objective than a comprehensive trilateral limitation on nuclear arsenals.

XI. Artificial Intelligence, Technological Competition and the New Strategic Balance

Artificial intelligence is another dimension of the emerging strategic competition.

The United States and China are competing over advanced computing, semiconductor technology, data infrastructure, military applications and the industrial ecosystems required to sustain technological leadership.

Russia possesses different technological and economic capabilities but retains strategic interests in military applications of AI, cyber operations and information systems.

A trilateral understanding concerning AI would therefore have to distinguish between two fundamentally different objectives.

The first is the reduction of risks associated with AI-enabled military systems.

The second is the regulation of technological competition.

The first objective may permit limited cooperation.

The second is much more difficult because technological leadership is directly connected to economic productivity, military advantage and national security.

Neither Washington nor Beijing is likely to accept an international arrangement that substantially restricts its ability to develop strategically important technologies without reciprocal and verifiable concessions.

The more probable outcome is selective cooperation in areas such as crisis communication, technical standards, incident reporting and the prevention of accidental escalation.

The broader technological competition would continue.

This distinction is important for international economic stability.

The fragmentation of semiconductor supply chains, export controls, investment restrictions and competing technological standards could increase production costs and reduce the efficiency of global innovation.

For middle powers, including Canada, the challenge would be to maintain access to both American and Asian technological ecosystems while protecting national security and industrial competitiveness.

XII. Global Economic and Financial Ramifications

The economic consequences of a Shenzhen accommodation could extend well beyond the immediate diplomatic issues.

The international economy is particularly sensitive to changes in geopolitical risk because financial markets continuously reassess expected future cash flows, sovereign risk, commodity prices and the credibility of government commitments.

A limited agreement could initially improve market sentiment by reducing expectations of military escalation.

However, the sustainability of such a response would depend upon the credibility of the underlying commitments.

A. Energy Markets

A credible reduction in the Iran conflict would probably lower the geopolitical risk premium associated with Persian Gulf energy transportation.

However, a temporary cessation of military operations without a durable maritime security arrangement would leave the underlying risks largely intact.

Energy prices could therefore remain sensitive to military developments, shipping disruptions and the possibility of renewed confrontation.

China, India, Japan, South Korea and European energy-importing economies would benefit from a durable reduction in uncertainty.

B. Sovereign Bond Markets

The relationship between geopolitical stabilization and sovereign bond markets is more complicated.

Reduced military risk can lower uncertainty and improve investor confidence.

Nevertheless, a settlement that increases defence expenditure, requires reconstruction financing or creates new security guarantees could increase fiscal pressures.

European governments may face additional borrowing requirements as they finance military modernization and support Ukraine.

The United States would continue to confront the fiscal consequences of defence expenditure, interest payments and other domestic commitments.

The result could be a divergence between short-term improvements in market sentiment and longer-term sovereign financing requirements.

C. Equity Markets and Investment

A reduction in geopolitical risk could support equity valuations, particularly in industries exposed to energy, transportation, technology and international manufacturing.

However, the possibility of great-power bargaining could introduce a different form of uncertainty.

Investors would have to consider whether political agreements could alter export controls, industrial subsidies, investment restrictions and access to critical markets.

For multinational corporations, the principal challenge would be to distinguish temporary diplomatic accommodation from durable changes in economic policy.

D. Defence Industries and the Fiscal Multiplier

European rearmament would continue even if Shenzhen produced a limited diplomatic understanding.

The reason is that European defence modernization responds not only to the immediate Ukrainian conflict but also to longer-term uncertainty concerning Russia, American commitments and the strategic balance within Europe.

Increased defence expenditure may stimulate industrial investment, employment, engineering research and technological innovation.

However, its economic contribution depends on the composition and efficiency of spending.

If increased expenditure primarily finances imported equipment or overpriced procurement, its contribution to domestic productivity may be limited.

Conversely, investment in domestic manufacturing, advanced materials, electronics, aerospace, cyber capabilities and research could generate positive technological spillovers.

The distinction between defence consumption and defence-related productive investment will become increasingly important.

XIII. The International Institutional Consequences: A More Fragmented Global Order

The most significant long-term consequence of Yalta II may be the gradual weakening of multilateral institutions.

A world in which the United States, Russia and China increasingly rely on direct bilateral and trilateral negotiations would create a different political environment for international organizations.

The United Nations, the World Trade Organization, international financial institutions and regional security organizations would continue to operate, but their ability to influence major-power decisions could diminish.

The danger is not necessarily the disappearance of multilateralism.

It is the emergence of selective multilateralism, in which major powers support international institutions when they serve their interests and bypass them when they impose constraints.

This would create three interconnected institutional problems.

First, smaller states could become increasingly uncertain about the reliability of international legal protections.

Second, regional organizations could lose influence over security arrangements negotiated outside their institutional frameworks.

Third, international economic governance could become more fragmented as national security considerations increasingly determine trade, investment and technological policy.

The result would be an international system characterized by overlapping spheres of economic influence rather than a clearly defined global institutional order.

Such a system could be stable for the largest powers while remaining highly uncertain for smaller states.

XIV. Canada: Strategic Implications for a Middle Power

For Canada, the consequences of a new pattern of great-power accommodation would be particularly important.

Canada's security and economic relationships are deeply connected to the United States, while its prosperity also depends upon diversified international trade, access to Asian markets and stable international institutions.

A transactional reconfiguration of American foreign policy could therefore create both opportunities and risks.

A. The North American Dimension

Canada must consider whether a more transactional American administration would increasingly treat continental economic integration as a source of bargaining leverage.

The security implications of a changing American relationship with Russia and China would also affect Canadian defence planning, Arctic security and cooperation with NATO allies.

The Arctic is particularly important because its strategic significance extends beyond traditional territorial defence to include maritime transportation, critical minerals, satellite infrastructure and emerging military capabilities.

B. Relations with Europe

A stronger European strategic pillar within NATO could create opportunities for closer Canadian cooperation.

Canada could contribute to defence-industrial partnerships, advanced manufacturing, critical mineral supply chains, aerospace, cyber security and intelligence cooperation.

Such cooperation would also reduce excessive dependence on any single external supplier.

C. Relations with China and the Indo-Pacific

Canada must balance economic diversification with national security considerations.

A more influential China could create opportunities for commercial engagement while increasing the importance of protecting critical infrastructure, advanced technology and sensitive research.

The appropriate response would not be automatic economic disengagement.

It would be a more carefully differentiated strategy that separates legitimate commercial cooperation from areas where technological or security dependencies could create unacceptable vulnerabilities.

D. The Canadian Strategic Objective

Canada should seek to strengthen its institutional relationships with Europe, the United States and Indo-Pacific partners without allowing its international position to become excessively dependent upon the changing personal preferences of individual leaders.

The central requirement is greater strategic resilience.

For a middle power, resilience depends upon diversified trade, credible defence capabilities, technological competence and the ability to participate in international institutions that protect national sovereignty.

XV. An Integrated Bayesian Assessment: Which Outcome Is Most Likely?

The three scenarios can now be evaluated in relation to the strategic preferences and constraints of the participants.

The probability of comprehensive great-power accommodation remains limited because the three leaders do not possess sufficiently aligned preferences concerning Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran or nuclear arms control.

Trump seeks visible diplomatic results but faces domestic and institutional constraints.

Putin seeks recognition and strategic concessions but may be unwilling to accept a settlement that falls short of his principal objectives.

Xi seeks diplomatic prestige and economic stability but has little incentive to assume responsibility for enforcing an agreement that could restrict Chinese strategic autonomy.

The convergence of these preferences is therefore partial rather than comprehensive.

The most likely outcome is asymmetric strategic accommodation, with an analytical probability of approximately 60%.

A more substantial agreement involving limited conflict de-escalation and reciprocal restraint remains possible, with an estimated probability of approximately 25%.

A breakdown in negotiations and a return to more confrontational strategic signalling has an estimated probability of approximately 15%.

These assessments are conditional on the information available on November 14, 2026. They are not forecasts of the meeting's confirmed outcome.

The probabilities would have to be revised if any of the following developments occurred:

A formal announcement of a trilateral negotiating agenda; a demonstrable Russian willingness to accept Ukrainian participation in a settlement; a concrete American proposal concerning Iran; a Chinese commitment to nuclear transparency; or evidence that the three governments had reached an understanding concerning regional security arrangements.

The principal analytical conclusion is that a successful summit does not necessarily require a comprehensive agreement.

Each leader may prefer an arrangement that provides immediate diplomatic benefits while preserving the option to change policy later.

This produces an equilibrium in which the appearance of cooperation may exceed its institutional substance.

Such an equilibrium can be politically attractive but strategically fragile.

XVI. Strategic Risks and Indicators for Subsequent Bayesian Updating

The interpretation of the Shenzhen meeting should not end with its final declaration or the statements made during the leaders' press appearances.

The real test will be whether the participants subsequently change their behaviour.

Several developments will be particularly important.

First, the continuation or suspension of Russian military operations in Ukraine will provide a more reliable indication of Moscow's negotiating intentions than diplomatic declarations alone.

Second, the American military posture in the Persian Gulf will reveal whether Washington is genuinely reducing its exposure or merely pausing offensive operations while maintaining coercive pressure.

Third, Chinese military activity around Taiwan will indicate whether Beijing interprets the meeting as an opportunity for restraint or as evidence of reduced American strategic resolve.

Fourth, the establishment of direct military communication channels among the three nuclear powers would provide tangible evidence of progress in crisis management.

Fifth, European governments' subsequent defence commitments and diplomatic coordination would indicate whether they interpret the summit as a manageable episode of presidential diplomacy or as evidence of a structural deterioration in American security guarantees.

Sixth, developments in semiconductor export controls, energy trade, sanctions and critical-mineral supply chains would reveal whether diplomatic accommodation is accompanied by changes in the economic relationship among the three powers.

These indicators should be evaluated jointly.

A single diplomatic declaration or military exercise should not produce a major revision in the assessment unless supported by additional evidence.

The distinction between temporary signalling and durable behavioural change is central to a credible Bayesian forecasting framework.

XVII. Conclusion: From a New Yalta to a More Transactional International Order

The proposed Shenzhen summit represents an important test of the contemporary international system.

It brings together three leaders whose countries possess extraordinary military, economic and technological capabilities but whose strategic objectives remain substantially different.

The meeting may create opportunities for reducing geopolitical uncertainty, improving communication and initiating limited cooperation on nuclear stability, artificial intelligence and regional conflicts.

However, the structural conditions for a comprehensive great-power settlement are not present.

The United States cannot independently determine the future of Ukraine, Iran or Taiwan. Russia cannot transform diplomatic recognition into internationally accepted territorial sovereignty. China cannot guarantee the behaviour of regional actors or eliminate the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.

The central danger is therefore not necessarily the emergence of a formal tripartite division of the world.

It is the normalization of a political system in which the largest powers increasingly manage their strategic difficulties through bilateral accommodation while transferring the consequences of their decisions to smaller states.

For Europe, this would accelerate the search for strategic autonomy and a more credible defence architecture.

For Japan and South Korea, it would increase incentives for independent deterrence and regional hedging.

For Taiwan, it would heighten uncertainty concerning the credibility of American security commitments.

For the Middle East, it could create opportunities for de-escalation while leaving the underlying political and security disputes unresolved.

For the international economy, it could produce short-term improvements in market confidence alongside longer-term fragmentation of trade, technology and investment relationships.

For Canada and other middle powers, the lesson is that national security cannot depend exclusively upon the goodwill or strategic calculations of the largest states.

The future of the international order will depend upon whether great-power diplomacy can be reconciled with the sovereignty of smaller states, the credibility of international institutions and the economic interdependence that underpins global prosperity.

Yalta II, if the term is to have analytical significance, should therefore not be understood as the beginning of a new territorial partition of the world. Its deeper significance lies in the possibility that international politics is moving towards a more transactional equilibrium in which the major powers seek to manage their competition through selective accommodation, strategic ambiguity and reciprocal restraint.

Whether this produces a more stable international system or merely postpones future confrontations will depend not on the symbolism of the Shenzhen meeting, but on the credibility, implementation and durability of the commitments that follow it.

Farid Novin
Global Review
November 14, 2026

Research and source corrections

Several important corrections have been incorporated into the revised manuscript.

1. The summit's status: The November 19 meeting is confirmed, but its substantive outcome remains unknown as of November 14. Reuters reports that the agenda and format remain under negotiation.

2. China's nuclear position: Beijing's reluctance to participate in conventional three-party arms-control negotiations is a structural issue, given the considerable difference between its arsenal and those of the United States and Russia.

3. Iran: The possibility of American restraint is real, but it should not be confused with a completed ceasefire or negotiated settlement.

4. Ukraine: The recent American-mediated discussions in Abu Dhabi must be considered separately from the proposed trilateral summit.

5. European defence: SAFE is a verified €150 billion financing instrument. The revised paper avoids presenting unverified industrial expenditure estimates and projected production figures as established facts.

6. Taiwan: The assessment incorporates the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense's November 14 operational reporting rather than relying exclusively on general geopolitical commentary.

Principal research references

• Reuters, November 14, 2026, A New 'Yalta'? Trump and Putin Push for a Meeting That Xi Is Wary of Hosting.

• Associated Press, November 14, 2026, Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Joint Meeting on APEC Sidelines.

• Brookings Institution, November 12, 2026, Trump, Xi, and Putin: What to Expect from the APEC Summit.

• Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 13, 2026, Xi Jinping to Attend the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting.

• Congressional Research Service, September 2026, U.S. Conflict with Iran.

• Reuters, November 14, 2026, reporting on Trump's possible restraint in further attacks against Iran.

• Associated Press, November 13, 2026, reporting on the American-mediated Russia–Ukraine discussions in Abu Dhabi.

• European Council, Security Action for Europe (SAFE).

• Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, November 14, 2026, PLA Activities in the Waters and Airspace Around Taiwan.

• Institute for the Study of War, November 13, 2026, China and Taiwan Update.