At the fault lines of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Turkey has always occupied an enviable strategic position. But geography alone does not confer power; it must be activated by political will, strategic imagination, and economic endurance. Over the past two decades, and especially under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has made a deliberate attempt to redefine itself as a pivotal actor in a multipolar world. No longer content with its former role as a cautious NATO ally and aspiring EU candidate, Turkey now seeks to project influence across its historical periphery—and beyond.
The transformation has been sweeping, but not haphazard. Ankara’s strategy blends hard power, soft power, and sharp power in ways that few mid-sized states have attempted. Yet its ambitions are constrained by internal vulnerabilities, regional resistance, and the shifting architecture of great power competition. Turkey’s assertive foreign policy reveals both the opportunities and the dangers of middle power revisionism in the twenty-first century.
Beyond the Neo-Ottoman Lens
Outside observers have often described Turkey’s new activism as "Neo-Ottomanism," a term that evokes imperial nostalgia and cultural revivalism. While echoes of the Ottoman past undoubtedly inform Ankara’s rhetorical style and symbolic gestures, the label is ultimately misleading. It flattens the strategic complexity behind Turkey’s moves and reduces pragmatic calculations to mere ideological longing.
In reality, Turkey’s foreign policy draws heavily from the "Strategic Depth" doctrine articulated by former Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. Initially centered on the notion of "zero problems with neighbors," the doctrine evolved as Turkey realized that its geography offered not just risks, but unparalleled leverage. Over time, "zero problems" gave way to selective engagement, military intervention, and diplomatic maneuvering aimed at maximizing Turkey’s autonomy in an increasingly fragmented world order.
Rather than seeking to restore Ottoman borders, Ankara is positioning itself as an indispensable regional power—a country that cannot be ignored in any serious negotiation over Europe’s security, the Middle East’s future, Africa’s development, or Asia’s connectivity.
Militarized Ambitions and Drone Diplomacy
Nothing symbolizes Turkey’s new posture more vividly than the spread of its military footprint. In Somalia, Ankara has established its largest overseas base, training local forces and securing a gateway to the Horn of Africa and the wider Indian Ocean. In Libya, Turkish intervention reversed the fortunes of the Tripoli-based government and secured maritime deals that enhance Turkey’s claims in the energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean.
Farther afield, Turkish military advisers, equipment, and drones have turned up in Niger, Ethiopia, and beyond—subtly redrawing the map of Turkish influence across Africa. The rise of Turkish-made drones, particularly the Bayraktar TB2, has given Ankara a relatively low-cost but high-impact tool for projecting power. Whether in Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, or Ukraine, these drones have tilted battlefields and burnished Turkey’s reputation as an arms exporter, creating what some analysts now call "drone diplomacy."
Maritime power has also returned to the center of Ankara’s strategic thinking. Under the "Blue Homeland" doctrine, Turkey asserts expansive claims over the Eastern Mediterranean. Its growing naval capabilities, buttressed by indigenous shipbuilding programs, signal that Turkey no longer views itself merely as a land power hemmed in by its geography. It now sees the surrounding seas as zones of contestation—and opportunity.
Managing Complexity at Home and Abroad
Turkey’s regional engagements reveal both ambition and improvisation. In Syria, Ankara has pursued a buffer zone strategy aimed at neutralizing Kurdish forces aligned with the PKK, while simultaneously trying to engineer conditions for the voluntary repatriation of Syrian refugees. In Iraq, Turkish forces strike PKK bases in the north even as Turkish companies deepen their economic ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government.
In the Caucasus, Turkey’s decisive support for Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war shifted the regional balance and opened new corridors for Turkish influence into Central Asia. Meanwhile, disputes with Greece and Cyprus over energy exploration have exposed the limits of Ankara’s reach, triggering counterbalancing coalitions that include France, Egypt, and Israel.
Turkey’s engagements are not cost-free. They require deft diplomacy to manage competing interests and avoid overextension. Each theater—from Idlib to Tripoli—demands resources, political attention, and the ability to pivot quickly in response to shifting local dynamics.
A Delicate Dance with Great Powers
At the level of great power politics, Turkey walks a tightrope. With Russia, it maintains a relationship best described as competitive cooperation. Ankara and Moscow are often on opposite sides of regional conflicts, yet they manage to compartmentalize tensions through high-level diplomacy and transactional bargains, from energy deals to ceasefire agreements.
Relations with the United States are more fraught. Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system triggered U.S. sanctions and exclusion from the F-35 program, while disputes over Kurdish forces in Syria and broader concerns about democratic backsliding have eroded trust. Yet, Turkey’s geostrategic value—controlling access to the Black Sea and hosting critical NATO assets—ensures that Washington cannot afford to sideline Ankara altogether.
With China, Turkey strikes a pragmatic balance: courting investment through the Belt and Road Initiative while occasionally voicing concern over the treatment of Uyghur Muslims, a Turkic people. Ankara’s diplomacy with Beijing is less ideological than opportunistic, reflecting a broader trend in Turkey’s foreign policy: flexibility over rigid alignment.
Meanwhile, relations with the European Union remain defined by paradox. Economically interdependent but politically estranged, Turkey and the EU are locked in a marriage of necessity. Migration, trade, and security imperatives tie them together even as disputes over human rights and Eastern Mediterranean tensions drive them apart.
Expanding the Toolkit: From Water Politics to Outer Space
Turkey’s ambitions are no longer confined to traditional military and diplomatic arenas. Ankara is expanding its influence through humanitarian assistance, cultural outreach, and strategic communications. Its control over the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers gives it leverage over downstream states like Syria and Iraq, adding water politics to its portfolio of regional tools.
The Turkish diaspora, particularly in Europe, has become an increasingly important vector of influence, both politically and culturally. At the same time, Turkey’s nascent space program—though still modest—signals an aspiration to reduce technological dependencies and enhance strategic autonomy in the emerging domain of outer space.
These initiatives reflect a broader understanding that influence in the twenty-first century depends as much on networks, narratives, and technology as it does on tanks and territory.
Risks of Overreach
Yet Turkey’s ascent is far from guaranteed. Its economic vulnerabilities—chronic inflation, currency instability, high external debt—threaten to sap the resources needed to sustain an activist foreign policy. Diplomatic isolation remains a constant risk, especially if Turkey’s assertiveness alienates potential partners faster than it wins concessions.
Perhaps the greatest vulnerability lies in the increasing fusion of foreign policy with domestic politics. Erdoğan’s reliance on nationalist rhetoric to bolster domestic support could incentivize risk-taking abroad, raising the possibility of miscalculation. In a more volatile global environment, even small missteps could prove costly.
Conclusion: Between Geography and Destiny
Turkey’s current trajectory reflects a bold attempt to transform geographic advantage into strategic mastery. It is carving out a role for itself as a regional power that refuses to be pigeonholed, aligning and realigning as circumstances dictate.
The success of this strategy will depend less on ideological coherence than on economic resilience, diplomatic agility, and strategic restraint. In the emerging multipolar world, Turkey is neither a revanchist empire nor a rogue state. It is something far more interesting—and perhaps more consequential: a restless power, determined to shape its destiny rather than accept one assigned to it by others.
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