Protecting Canadian Interests: A New Defence Strategy for a Contested World

Introduction: The Imperative of Strategic Reassessment in a Shifting Global Order

Canada stands at a historic crossroads in its defense and national security posture. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House has introduced an unprecedented degree of political volatility into the Canada–United States relationship—marked by steep tariffs, border militarization rhetoric, and inflammatory suggestions about Canada becoming the "51st state." This emerging dynamic has forced a profound reassessment: Can Canada continue to rely on the United States as its primary security guarantor?

For decades, Canadian defense strategy has been structured around the assumption of deep, stable integration with U.S. defense architecture—epitomized by NORAD and NATO. Yet today, a confluence of strategic shocks—rising economic coercion, a reconfigured global order, and the weaponization of alliance asymmetries—signals a need for a foundational recalibration. Technological supremacy, alliance diversification, Arctic sovereignty, and procurement efficiency are no longer abstract policy preferences; they are necessities for defending Canadian sovereignty in an era where Washington’s support is no longer assured.

This paper argues that Canada must move decisively toward strategic autonomy while deepening selective alliances—developing the military, technological, and diplomatic tools required to secure its interests through 2050. What follows is a comprehensive, integrated policy roadmap premised on the recognition that Canada’s future security must be Canadian-led, not U.S.-dependent.

1. Fortifying Technological Sovereignty and Independent Defence Capabilities

With the erosion of predictable U.S. defense support, technological sovereignty is now a strategic imperative. In an era where military and economic power are increasingly underpinned by technological innovation, Canada must control its own critical capabilities, particularly in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and data infrastructure.

Investing in Defence-Centric Artificial Intelligence (AI) Canada ranks among the global leaders in AI research, and must now redirect that advantage toward defense. Establishing a Defence AI Innovation Hub would ensure control over key enablers of military intelligence and operational autonomy. Key priorities should include:

• AI-powered strategic forecasting and threat detection

• Ethical autonomous systems for multi-domain operations

• Integration with the Canadian Armed Forces’ All-Domain Sensing Strategy

Elevating Cyber Sovereignty Canada’s vulnerability to cyberattacks continues to grow. In 2023 alone, the CSE reported over 235 ransomware incidents—a 20% rise. With U.S. cyber collaboration increasingly shaped by domestic political priorities, Canada must develop independent capabilities:

• Significantly increase cyber defense spending beyond current $500 million allocations

• Protect critical infrastructure through updated national standards

• Develop quantum-resistant cryptography under the National Quantum Strategy

Securing Big Data Dominance Strategic autonomy depends on the ability to process and exploit massive volumes of data. Canada should:

• Build classified, sovereign cloud infrastructure akin to the U.S. Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability

• Recruit and retain data science talent within defense intelligence agencies

• Create multi-source fusion centers to enable real-time cross-domain situational awareness

Space-Based Sovereignty U.S. dominance in military space operations cannot substitute for Canadian capabilities. Canada must:

• Expand space surveillance infrastructure, including radar and optical tracking of orbital objects

• Support domestic innovation through firms like MDA

• Bolster multilateral partnerships, particularly the Combined Space Operations initiative

2. Reducing Strategic Dependency Through Alliance Diversification

As the U.S. defense umbrella becomes conditional, Canada must mitigate risk through diversified security relationships—augmenting, not replacing, traditional alliances.

Strengthening NATO Commitments While the transatlantic relationship remains crucial, Canada’s underperformance in defense investment undermines credibility:

• Chart a clear path to NATO’s 2% GDP spending target by 2030, requiring $15–20 billion in additional annual investment

• Expand presence in NATO’s forward deployments, including Latvia and Eastern Europe

• Enhance cooperation in NATO's Defense Innovation Accelerator and the Innovation Fund

Deepening Five Eyes Collaboration—But With Safeguards Canada must leverage Five Eyes intelligence capabilities while guarding against overexposure to U.S. volatility:

• Modernize secure communications systems across intelligence agencies

• Expand technology-sharing frameworks independent of U.S. export restrictions

• Enhance combined cyber response capabilities, especially for attribution and deterrence

Forging New Bilateral and Multilateral Security Partnerships Looking beyond the U.S. is no longer aspirational—it is existential:

• Deepen defense-industrial collaboration with France, Germany, and Nordic countries

• Implement Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with strategic military engagement in Japan, South Korea, and Australia

• Leverage innovation partnerships, such as with Singapore, to develop dual-use technologies with strategic value

3. Asserting Arctic Sovereignty and Building Asymmetric Capabilities

Canada's geographic and demographic constraints make asymmetric advantage essential—particularly in the Arctic, where U.S. interests may increasingly diverge from Canadian sovereignty.

Defending the Arctic—Alone, If Necessary Canada’s northern frontier is no longer a quiet backwater. Climate change, great power competition, and increased shipping traffic demand Arctic vigilance:

• Expand the North Warning System upgrade with space-based and AI-enhanced sensors

• Accelerate deployment of Arctic-capable patrol ships and submarines

• Empower and expand Canadian Rangers and Indigenous-led Arctic operations

Asymmetric Tools for Strategic Autonomy Rather than replicate U.S. force structure, Canada should build precision tools:

• Expand CANSOFCOM, focusing on rapid-deployment Arctic and cyber operations

• Develop tailored offensive cyber capabilities to neutralize coercive actors

• Leverage linguistic and cultural diversity to build world-class intelligence analysis teams

4. Reforming Defence Procurement for Strategic Agility

Canada’s procurement failures pose a direct threat to national readiness. In a context where U.S. defense supplies may be deprioritized or politically weaponized, Canada must control its own procurement timelines and supply chains.

Structural Overhaul Priorities

• Reduce procurement cycles from 7+ years to 3–4 years

• Increase Department of National Defence contracting authority from $5 million to $25 million

• Guarantee multi-year funding stability, modeled on Australia’s Integrated Investment Plan

• Refocus the Industrial and Technological Benefits Policy on critical capabilities, not just economic returns

5. Integrating Soft Power and Diplomacy into Strategic Defence

Canada’s defense strategy must go beyond hardware—it must integrate diplomacy, democratic resilience, and development policy to shape a more stable global environment.

Multilateral and Norm-Setting Leadership

• Use membership in 75+ international organizations to promote cyber and space governance norms

• Expand programs that counter disinformation and authoritarian influence, building on the Digital Citizen Initiative

• Align foreign aid with security goals, focusing on fragile states and geostrategic chokepoints

Projecting Toward 2050: Canada’s Strategic Environment

Canada’s long-term defense planning must account for major structural forces:

• U.S.-China competition will remain central, fracturing global technology ecosystems and militarizing economic ties

• Arctic transformation will accelerate, requiring year-round surveillance and rapid response capabilities

• Technological disruption (AI, quantum, biotech) will reshape warfare, requiring sovereign development

• Demographic shifts will challenge CAF recruitment, requiring deeper integration of immigrants and underrepresented populations

Conclusion: Strategic Autonomy as a National Imperative

Canada can no longer afford to bet its security on U.S. predictability. A comprehensive defense strategy that prioritizes technological independence, alliance diversification, asymmetric capabilities, procurement reform, and integrated diplomacy is not merely desirable—it is essential.

The decisions made over the next five years will shape Canada’s security for the next fifty. Without bold reforms and sustained investment, Canada risks becoming strategically irrelevant or, worse, vulnerable to coercion from both adversaries and allies.

But Canada is not without leverage. Its geographic positioning, resource base, technological strengths, and global reputation provide a strong foundation. What is required now is political will and a clear-eyed acceptance of a new strategic reality: Canada must be able to defend itself—because no one else is guaranteed to do it.