In the wake of seismic political shifts, Europe finds itself at a critical inflection point in its security architecture. The continent's geostrategic landscape has been fundamentally altered by the convergence of several pivotal developments: Russia's protracted conflict in Ukraine, Germany's economic malaise, and most significantly, the reconfiguration of transatlantic relations under the Trump administration's return to power.
The Dissolution of Transatlantic Certainty
The longstanding security paradigm that has underpinned European defense policy since 1945 appears increasingly tenuous. Friedrich Merz, the ascendant German chancellor, has articulated a stark assessment of the current administration's posture toward Europe: "Americans, at least this part of Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe." This pronouncement from a historically staunch Atlanticist signals a profound reappraisal of Germany's—and by extension Europe's—strategic orientation.
The Trump administration's approach to Ukraine has catalyzed particular concern among European leaders. The characterization of President Zelensky as a "dictator," coupled with unilateral peace overtures to Moscow, has generated apprehension regarding America's commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. This diplomatic maneuver, conducted without substantive European consultation, underscores the diminishing influence of European stakeholders in shaping the resolution of a conflict taking place on their doorstep.
Germany's Pivotal Role
Germany, despite its economic challenges, now finds itself thrust into a position of continental leadership. Merz has acknowledged this responsibility, stating, "Now everyone is looking at Germany." The formation of a stable coalition government in Berlin has thus acquired strategic urgency, as Europe requires coordinated leadership to navigate this period of geopolitical uncertainty.
The economic difficulties confronting Germany compound the complexity of this leadership challenge. The confluence of energy insecurity, supply chain disruptions, declining export demand, and structural economic impediments has undermined Germany's economic resilience precisely when European stability demands a robust German economic engine.
The Search for Strategic Autonomy
Merz's contemplation of nuclear cooperation between France, Britain, and Germany represents a remarkable departure from established security doctrine. This consideration of a European nuclear deterrent to replace the American nuclear umbrella illuminates the extent to which traditional security assumptions have been upended.
The German chancellor's suggestion that Europe may need to "build an independent European defense capability more quickly" and potentially create an alternative to NATO in its current form reflects an unprecedented reassessment of the continent's security architecture. His declaration that his "top priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can actually achieve our independence from the United States" encapsulates the emergent strategic consensus among European policymakers.
Multilateral Pressures and Realignments
European leaders perceive themselves as caught between competing geopolitical forces. Merz's assertion that European nations are "under such widespread pressure from both sides" and his equating of Washington's electoral interventions with those emanating from Moscow reveals the extent to which traditional alliances have frayed.
Perhaps most concerning for European strategists is Merz's assessment that "Russia and the United States are getting closer here, over Ukraine and therefore over Europe." This perception of an emerging rapprochement between Washington and Moscow—at Europe's expense—represents a fundamental challenge to the post-Cold War security order.
A New Transactional Reality
The Trump administration has crystallized its economic vision through the February 10 executive order renewing and enhancing US tariffs on steel and aluminum. This reflects a fundamentally altered approach to international economics—one predicated on insulating the United States from global trade flows and reducing economic commitments to systemic stability. The president's electoral success demonstrated significant domestic support for this reorientation, particularly given widespread economic anxieties among American voters.
For Europe, and especially for the European Union, this marks the beginning of a profoundly different phase in the US-European relationship. The continent can no longer assume the existence of a strategic partnership with the United States as security guarantor. Nor can Europe afford passivity in this new paradigm, simply waiting for a reversion to pre-Trump consensus on trade and foreign policy. European leaders must recalibrate their approach to transatlantic relations, acknowledging that the relationship will henceforth be substantially more transactional in nature.
The second Trump administration will not evaluate European countries as loyal allies but rather according to their strengths and weaknesses as negotiating counterparts and the tangible assets they bring to the relationship. In response, the EU and its member states must abandon reliance on notions of strategic partnership in favor of pragmatic deal-making. While the EU may wish to sustain and bolster the international legal order—including the WTO-based trading system—it should not expect American participation in this endeavor. Indeed, the US approach may actively challenge European efforts to strengthen international legal regimes and multilateral governance.
European Response: Potential for a Transatlantic Deal
As the Trump administration implements its agenda, Europe faces the formidable task of renegotiating its most significant international partnership—while simultaneously confronting war on its borders and economic stagnation. The immediate challenge for European leaders is demonstrating to the administration that engagement with the EU can yield meaningful benefits.
In the near term, the EU must respond to Trump's transactional approach—particularly regarding steel and aluminum tariffs—with a substantive proposal that incorporates European interests. While some advocate for retaliatory tariffs, such measures would increase costs in Europe during a period of already elevated prices. However, tariffs do provide negotiating leverage, and the EU must decide how to deploy this tool effectively.
A viable transatlantic deal could incorporate several elements:
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Tariff Relief: The deal should begin with an understanding that new tariffs will not be imposed by either party, including the announced steel and aluminum tariffs. This could include renewed negotiations addressing global overcapacity issues in these sectors.
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Trade Rebalancing: Acknowledging the American focus on the trade deficit, especially in goods, the deal could address barriers to US exports while recognizing the highly integrated nature of transatlantic supply chains.
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Automotive Sector: The EU could consider reducing its 10% tariff on passenger vehicles to match the US rate of 2.5%, providing a meaningful symbolic gesture without threatening the European automotive industry.
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Energy Cooperation: A cornerstone of any agreement would be continued growth in European imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). US exports to Europe have tripled since 2021, now constituting approximately 50% of EU LNG imports.
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Regulatory Cooperation: The EU could pledge that new regulatory measures, particularly regarding carbon capture and methane emissions, will not impede LNG trade with the United States.
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Defense Procurement: The EU could articulate plans for defense expenditures on US equipment over the next several years, providing concrete evidence of Europe's commitment to burden-sharing.
Beyond an initial deal, the EU and the Trump administration could pursue additional agreements in areas of mutual benefit:
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Critical Minerals: Both the US and EU face significant dependencies on imports of critical raw materials, with China controlling substantial portions of extraction and processing. A bilateral agreement recognizing each other's production as suitable for barrier-free import could advance shared interests in supply chain security.
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Regulatory Relief: The EU could offer flexibility in implementing pending regulations that will affect US companies, particularly the Deforestation Regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D). Early negotiations on implementation could identify ways to ease compliance burdens.
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Digital Trade: With shifting US positions on data flows, prospects for a bilateral digital trade agreement have improved. Such an agreement could address requirements for e-commerce while accommodating shared concerns about data transfers to countries like China and Russia.
European leaders must adapt to new mechanisms for US-EU discussions. Rather than comprehensive frameworks like the Trade and Technology Council, three distinct types of consultation are likely to emerge:
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Issue-Specific Working-Level Consultations: Limited in scope and focused on resolving particular matters identified during high-level meetings.
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Technical Dialogues: Continuation of established technical forums, such as the Joint US-EU Financial Regulatory Forum, though likely with more constrained scope and frequency.
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Political Dialogues: High-level exchanges on topics like energy, China, cybersecurity, and potentially Ukraine reconstruction, with potential to address more technical issues within these frameworks.
As Europe contemplates greater strategic autonomy, it confronts formidable institutional, financial, and political obstacles. However, the alternative—continued dependence on increasingly uncertain American security guarantees—appears progressively untenable to European policymakers. The continent thus finds itself at a strategic crossroads, compelled to reimagine its security architecture for a new geopolitical era characterized by diminished American engagement and heightened regional instability.
During the next four years—and perhaps longer—the transatlantic partnership will undergo a fundamental transformation. Established assumptions about strategic alliances and joint stewardship of the international order must evolve. To navigate this new reality effectively, European leaders should prioritize their own interests rather than seeking American understanding and support. They must recognize that while deals remain possible, they will not revitalize a strategic partnership under the current administration.
Ultimately, Europe's most promising strategy lies in economic revitalization and enhanced internal cohesion. When the EU can present itself as a strong, unified actor with an economy vital to American corporate interests, it will discover greater opportunities to engage with Trump's America—and to do so on terms more favorable to European priorities.
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