Karim Sadjadpour's essay "The New Battle for the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions" Published on October 22, 2024 in Foreign Affairs presents a compelling narrative about the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, yet its framework and presentation contain several problematic elements that could mislead policymakers and shape public perception in potentially harmful ways. This analysis examines these elements and their implications for policy formation.
Narrative Construction and Its Implications
The essay's fundamental structure relies on a binary opposition between a "modernizing" Saudi Arabia and a "backward-looking" Iran. This oversimplified framework creates a false dichotomy that obscures the complex reality of both societies. When the text states that "Vision 2030 appeals to national aspirations, whereas Vision 1979 taps into national grievances," it ignores how both regimes effectively utilize both aspirational messaging and grievance politics to maintain power and legitimacy.
The historical framing employed in the essay is particularly problematic. By emphasizing Iran's 1979 revolution while minimizing Saudi Arabia's historical relationship with religious fundamentalism, the text creates an artificial temporal boundary that serves its narrative purposes but distorts historical understanding. The essay's treatment of Saudi Arabia's past involvement in funding global Islamic extremism is notably brief, presenting it as a historical footnote rather than a significant factor that continues to influence regional dynamics.
Problematic Evidence and Methodological Issues
The essay's use of economic data requires careful scrutiny. When claiming that "Saudi Arabia has more than twice the GDP of Iran despite having less than half its population," the text fails to provide crucial context about international sanctions, different economic structures, and historical development paths. This selective presentation of economic data creates a misleading picture of both countries' economic realities and potential.
The reliance on anecdotal evidence is particularly concerning. The essay frequently cites unnamed officials and unverified stories, such as the correspondence between the Shah and King Faisal, without adequate source documentation. When poll results are presented, they lack methodological context, making it impossible to evaluate their reliability or representativeness.
Security Alliance Framework and Policy Implications
The essay's treatment of security alliances reveals significant biases that could affect policy decisions. By presenting U.S. security guarantees as essential for Saudi stability, the text creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that could limit policymakers' ability to consider alternative regional security arrangements. The complex dynamics of regional security are reduced to a simple equation where American protection is presented as the only viable option for Saudi Arabia's modernization project.
Reform Narrative and Historical Parallels
The essay's treatment of Saudi reforms requires particular scrutiny, especially when viewed through the historical lens of Iran's pre-revolutionary modernization attempts. The striking parallels between Mohammed bin Salman's current reforms and Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's modernization program of the 1960s and 1970s deserve careful consideration.
The Shah's "White Revolution" and subsequent reforms shared many characteristics with Vision 2030: rapid modernization, social liberalization, and ambitious economic transformation. However, the Shah's approach to modernization, particularly his emphasis on superficial Westernization, ultimately contributed to his downfall. His promotion of Western fashion, avant-garde art exhibitions, and lavish celebrations (like the notorious 1971 celebration at Persepolis) created a cultural disconnect with large segments of Iranian society who felt their traditional values were being dismissed and degraded.
The essay's treatment of MBS's reforms shows concerning similarities. The emphasis on entertainment megaprojects, international sporting events, and rapid social liberalization mirrors the Shah's approach to modernization. Just as the Shah's Tehran was marked by stark contrasts between ultramodern shopping centers and traditional bazaars, today's Saudi Arabia exhibits similar juxtapositions between ambitious projects like NEOM and traditional societal structures.
Both leaders' reforms share another crucial characteristic: they prioritize economic and social transformation while maintaining rigid political control. The Shah's SAVAK (secret police) and MBS's strict control over dissent suggest that both leaders view political liberalization as a threat rather than a complement to their modernization programs. The essay doesn't sufficiently explore this contradiction or its potential consequences.
The key difference lies in the pace and cultural context. While the Shah's reforms spanned decades, allowing some degree of societal adaptation, MBS's Vision 2030 attempts to compress similar changes into a much shorter timeframe. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's deeper religious conservatism and role as custodian of Islam's holiest sites makes rapid social liberalization potentially more destabilizing than in pre-revolutionary Iran.
These historical parallels raise important questions about the sustainability of top-down modernization in traditional societies. The essay's optimistic treatment of Saudi reforms would benefit from more careful consideration of how the Shah's similar attempts at rapid modernization created societal tensions that ultimately proved unsustainable.
Critical Omissions and Their Impact
Several crucial factors are notably absent from the analysis. The roles of other regional powers, such as Turkey and Israel, receive minimal attention. The internal dynamics of smaller Gulf states, which significantly influence regional politics, are largely ignored. Moreover, the essay gives insufficient attention to critical structural factors such as climate change impacts, water security issues, and demographic challenges beyond youth populations.
Implications for Policy Formation
Policymakers reading this essay should be aware of several key considerations for developing more effective policies:
First, they must recognize how the essay's modernization narrative shapes perceptions of progress and development. Rather than accepting this linear progression model, policymakers should consider multiple development paths and their implications.
Second, economic data should be evaluated within its full context, including structural factors, international relations, and historical developments. Raw data and methodological details should be sought when making policy decisions based on economic comparisons.
Third, policy development should move beyond binary scenarios to consider multiple possible futures for the region. This includes evaluating unintended consequences of supporting rapid change and developing more sophisticated metrics for evaluating reform claims.
Conclusion
While the essay provides valuable insights into Saudi-Iranian dynamics, its narrative framework and presentation could lead policymakers toward oversimplified conclusions. A more nuanced approach is essential for effective policy development. This requires moving beyond binary oppositions while maintaining analytical rigor in evaluating regional developments.
To develop effective policies, decision-makers must recognize how narrative frameworks can shape understanding of complex regional dynamics. By acknowledging these potential biases and seeking multiple perspectives, policymakers can develop more sophisticated and effective approaches to engaging with both countries and the broader region.
The challenge lies not in choosing between competing visions but in understanding how these narratives shape our perception of regional possibilities and limitations. Only by moving beyond simplified oppositions can policymakers develop approaches that effectively address the complex realities of both societies and their roles in the broader Middle Eastern context.
The historical parallel between the Shah's reforms and Vision 2030 serves as a crucial reminder that modernization programs must balance change with cultural sensitivity and societal readiness. The essay's failure to deeply examine these historical lessons represents a significant oversight that could lead policymakers to underestimate the risks inherent in rapid social transformation. Understanding these historical parallels is essential for developing policies that support sustainable reform while remaining mindful of societal dynamics and cultural sensitivities.
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