The civil war in Syria, now in its thirteenth year, has profoundly reshaped the Middle East, giving rise to a complex web of conflicts and unintended consequences. Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with the significant backing of Iran and Russia, has regained control over approximately 70 percent of the country, ongoing violence and geopolitical maneuvering by global and regional powers continue to destabilize the region. One of the most significant consequences of this fractured environment is the rise of jihadist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose enduring impact on regional security cannot be overlooked.
The situation in Aleppo serves as a microcosm of the broader geopolitical landscape, reflecting the complexity, interconnectedness, and resistance to simplistic narratives. Traditional power paradigms are continuously challenged by emerging strategic calculations from both state and non-state actors. This evolving dynamic demands a rethinking of how global powers approach the region.
The realization is growing that military victories, while still pursued, are often pyrrhic in nature. True strategic success lies not in the acquisition of territory but in understanding the intricate regional dynamics, maintaining flexible diplomatic channels, and developing adaptive economic and security frameworks that can respond to rapid shifts on the ground.
Global and regional powers—including Iran, Turkey, Russia, the United States, France, and the Gulf States—have played pivotal roles in shaping the trajectory of the war. However, the unintended consequences of their involvement are becoming increasingly evident, particularly with regard to security threats, shifting alliances, and the evolving balance of power in the region.
The United States: Counterterrorism and Regional Instability
The United States has been involved in Syria for over a decade, initially supporting opposition groups and later focusing its efforts on counterterrorism, particularly targeting ISIS. U.S. forces have maintained a presence in Syria to prevent ISIS's resurgence and counter Iran’s growing influence in the region. However, the withdrawal of U.S. troops under the Trump administration, coupled with subsequent limited engagement, has left a vacuum that Iran, Russia, and Turkey have largely filled.
For Israel, the U.S. military presence in Syria has provided essential support. However, the unintended consequence of a jihadist victory could render these efforts moot, as local actors gain ground. The increasing number of attacks on U.S. bases in Syria by jihadist groups has led to heightened military tensions, complicating the broader U.S. strategy. If U.S. influence wanes and jihadist forces strengthen, Israel could find itself in a more precarious position, facing a more hostile and unstable region.
Russia: The Kingmaker in Syria’s Fragmented Landscape
Russia’s intervention in Syria, which began in 2015, has been a game-changer, shifting the balance of power in favor of Assad’s regime. Russian airstrikes have played a crucial role in helping Assad regain substantial territory, and Russia has further solidified its presence in the region through military and economic partnerships. However, Moscow’s support for Assad, coupled with its reluctance to fully dismantle jihadist factions like HTS, has left these groups with the opportunity to persist in areas such as Idlib.
The persistence or resurgence of jihadist groups could undermine Russia’s influence, despite its strategic interests, including maintaining a naval base in Tartus. Moreover, Russia’s complex relations with Iran and Israel put it in a precarious position, balancing competing interests that could unravel should Syria face further destabilization from jihadist forces.
Nevertheless, Russia’s involvement is pivotal. Its nuanced strategy in Syria—focused on maintaining regional relevance rather than military conquest—underscores the importance of diplomatic and military flexibility. The ongoing developments in Aleppo provide Russia with an opportunity to showcase its diplomatic and military capabilities, offsetting some of the international pressure stemming from its actions in Ukraine.
China’s Strategic Calculations
The developments in Aleppo offer China a platform for sophisticated geopolitical maneuvering. These include showcasing diplomatic neutrality, exploring economic investments in reconstruction, and diverting international attention from issues like the South China Sea. While China has refrained from direct military engagement, the Syrian conflict presents a valuable opportunity to expand its Belt and Road Initiative through infrastructure development and economic partnerships, further solidifying its influence in the region.
Iran’s Shifting Dynamics: Beyond Territorial Control
Iran has been a key actor in Syria since the conflict’s outset in 2011. Through military support for Assad and the establishment of proxy militias, Tehran has cemented its position as a dominant force in Syria. Iran’s strategic influence stretches from Tehran to Beirut, via Baghdad and Damascus, posing a direct challenge to Israel’s regional dominance. Israeli airstrikes have repeatedly targeted Iranian positions in Syria in an attempt to disrupt Tehran’s entrenchment.
Iran-backed forces, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), not only threaten Israel’s dominance but also destabilize neighboring regions, including Egypt and Jordan. The heightened Israeli airstrikes following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks have escalated tensions, with the risk of broader regional conflict looming. If jihadist forces gain strength, Iran’s presence in Syria could further complicate an already fragile regional balance.
Turkey: A Complex Balancing Act
Turkey, which has actively supported opposition groups against Assad, faces its own set of unintended consequences. Ankara’s operations in northern Syria have primarily targeted Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it views as aligned with the PKK. However, the rise of jihadist groups adds further complexity to Turkey’s position.
Turkey’s strategy, aimed at expanding its influence and diminishing Kurdish power, has included military and logistical support for HTS-led offensives. They also want to repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. While seeking to exploit Hezbollah’s weakened state, Turkey is faced with the unintended empowerment of jihadist groups, which exacerbates its security concerns, particularly regarding Kurdish autonomy. The long-term consequences of a jihadist victory could stretch Turkey’s resources and create new challenges, forcing it to confront both Kurdish and jihadist forces.
France and the Gulf States: Diplomacy and Rising Threats
France has played a key role in counterterrorism efforts, particularly alongside the U.S., and contributed to airstrikes and humanitarian assistance. However, as Syria fragments further and jihadist groups rise, France’s influence wanes. Despite efforts to engage Syrian opposition groups diplomatically, the dominance of Russia in peace talks has sidelined French ambitions.
Meanwhile, Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have historically supported various rebel factions, have begun to normalize relations with Assad, reflecting a shift in regional priorities. The unintended consequence of a jihadist victory would likely compel these nations to reassess their alliances and focus on containing the growing jihadist threat.
Economic and Strategic Implications
Syria’s ongoing fragmentation, particularly in regions like Aleppo, has significant implications for global oil markets. The disruption of regional supply chains could trigger price volatility in crude oil futures, as well as shifts in energy transit routes, increasing the strategic importance of alternative energy corridors.
Additionally, modern conflicts like the Syrian war increasingly play out in the digital realm, with state and non-state actors using advanced surveillance, disinformation campaigns, and cyber attacks as tools of warfare. These technological dimensions add layers of complexity to traditional geopolitical strategies, complicating the resolution of conflicts.
Conclusion: The Ripple Effects of a Jihadist Victory
The unintended consequences of a jihadist victory in Syria would be both significant and alarming. While Israel’s military superiority may allow it to defend its borders, the rise of jihadist groups would create persistent instability, threatening the broader regional security landscape. The complex interplay of regional and global powers, each pursuing their own interests, will continue to shape Syria’s future in ways that complicate the strategic outlook for the broader Middle East.
The involvement of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States—alongside the persistent threat posed by jihadist activity—risks further entrenching a situation where regional stability remains elusive. For the U.S., the growing influence of China and the potential strengthening of groups hostile to Israel would be major concerns. The unintended consequences of foreign interventions, whether by Russia, Turkey, or the Gulf States, could result in a Syria that is even more fractured, jihadist-leaning, and ultimately more dangerous for all involved.
